The 1984 Society conducted its first post-primary poll and I’d like to share some of my thoughts on the results with you.
The good news is that while nationally the generic ballot is +6 Democrat, Ohio’s generic ballot is +2 Republican. The bad news is that the trend we’ve seen in past polls continues to show that the number of Ohioans discontent with the direction of the state are growing. Ohioans who believe the state is moving in the wrong direction has gone up by seven percent since 2016. Our results show that Republicans are likely to retain the Governorship but unlikely to win the US Senate seat. Mike DeWine is leading in every media market except Cleveland and up by 7 points over Cordray.
If the election were held today, Renacci would lose to Brown by 14 points. With Brown so far ahead, I expect that the national conservative groups will see these results and their dollars will begin to flood into Ohio in an effort to prevent losing Republican control of the Senate.
But one of the major concerns raised by this poll is something that I’ve written to you about before- the apportionment board seats. Our results show that Clyde and LaRose are in a dead heat and Faber is down to Space by 3 points. While these findings are within the margin of error, they do signal that Republicans are in danger of losing some statewides and in turn, pivotal seats on Ohio’s redistricting commission.